OTTAWA – Almost one-third of the local population will be a visible minority by 2031, according to projections released Tuesday by Statistics Canada.

The agency says the proportion of visible minorities will double from 14 per cent counted in the 2006 census, to 28 per cent in 2031.

The projections suggest the face of Canada will change even more dramatically than it already has as immigrants from South Asia and China continue to outnumber the Europeans who settled the country.

The national figures project a radically altered population over a half century.

Across Canada, Statistics Canada is predicting 31 per cent of the population will be a visible minority in three decades _ that’s more than 14.4 million people.

In 1981, there were just over one million Canadians who identified themselves as visible minorities, representing less than five per cent of the population.

Locally, the proportion of foreign-born residents is also expected to spike, jumping from 23 per cent in ‘06 to 28 per cent in 2031.

Statistics Canada takes its definition of a visible minority from the federal Employment Equity Act, which is “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.”

The largest visible minority population in 2031 is projected to be South Asian, which includes people from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Chinese is No. 2.

The change in population is not projected to occur at the same pace throughout the country.

Instead, more rapid change is expected in the largest metropolitan areas, especially Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, where most newcomers tend to settle.

Jeffrey Reitz, a professor of ethnic and immigration studies at the University of Toronto, says the history of immigration shows that diversity comes to the cities first, though that may change over time.

Newcomers to Canada tend to settle in larger cities not only because the sheer size means more job opportunities, but also because there are built-in communities of people with similar backgrounds.

The study takes into account the populations of Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo, Woolwich, Wilmot, Wellesely and North Dumfries.

For a more in-depth local-specific story, see Wednesday’s Waterloo Region Record.